Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts

Monday, July 6, 2009

Green Shoots, Red Ink, Black Hole

Today on MSNBC’s “Morning Meeting” Dylan Ratigan hosted Eliot Spitzer-former New York Governor & Attorney General, Robert Shiller-Yale Economist, and Bill Fleckenstein-President of Fleckenstein Capital as they examined the current employment crisis. This is a continuation on the previous posting and I thought it would round out the discussion pretty well.

Primarily the panel was in agreement that we have some severe structural problems that must be addressed and that we are experiencing a transformation in our capitalist system. More needs to be done at a governmental level to promote a strong and vibrant recovery and rebirth.

Take a look…


Friday, June 12, 2009

Budget Deficits and the Debt

The Charlie Rose show on Wednesday had a fantastic round-table discussion on the impact of our budget deficits and the national debt. I encourage all of my readers to take a look. Charlie talks about the source of the problems, the impact for the future, and the likely solutions with David Leonhardt, Alan Blinder, Alan Auerbach and Richard Posner.



To view this clip and other highlights from the The Charlie Rose Show please go to http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/10381 .

Saturday, June 6, 2009

What do you expect?

The growing sense of optimism in a housing market "bottom" needs to be balanced with a realization that more challenges are ahead of us. There is a growing fear that the market will see a "glut" of new inventory as we appear to stabilize. Sellers who have been waiting for a "glimmer of hope" will rush to unload...after holding out during the past eighteen months. We have already seen a new wave of foreclosure inventory released into the market. We seem to be stuck at 10 to 12 months of inventory. It will be a necessary but not sufficient condition for "recovery" when we see inventory under six months supply. Inventory levels can drop through sales or through an increased demand.

Jobs will drive a housing recovery. Until we see the unemployment rate start to decline, we are likely going to see additional erosion in home value and housing demand.

Diana Olick at RealtyCheck and CNBC had an interesting perspective on seller expectations. The fact that the buying market seems to be "bottom feeding" on distressed inventory and driving pricing down for "organic" sales...all point to more discomfort for home sales.

Here is Diana Olick talking about falling prices on CNBC Friday...












Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Cramer Calls "Housing Bottom"

While I believe the assertion that we have "the best affordability on record" is over-hyped, I agree that halting the constant value depreciation is the ultimate rainbow after the storm...Mr. Cramer has been predicting a mid 2009 housing bottom for a while. This video from TheStreet.com gives you Jim's "state of the market" view on housing.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Pending Recovery?

Today we received the April "Pending Home Sales" index results from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The index saw its third straight monthly increase in the data and the greatest monthly increase in over seven years. This index is often less reliable than new home sales or existing home sales numbers but it can show a trend pretty well. The greatest increase in pending sales was found in the northeast and midwest.

Here is CNBC's take on the data this morning...












Monday, June 1, 2009

Construction Spending in April Surprises Economists

AP reporting on the April construction spending data. I guess we can't say that housing is flying high but as Buzz Lightyear might say...we are "falling with style".

US construction spending posts surprising gain

US construction spending posts surprising 0.8 pct gain in April; spending on home building up

• Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
• On Monday June 1, 2009, 10:28 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction spending in the U.S. rose 0.8 percent in April, defying economists' forecasts for a decline.

The unexpected gain -- the most since August -- marked the second straight month that builders boosted spending on construction projects around the country, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists were bracing for a 1.2 percent drop in construction spending for April.

Before March's uptick, construction spending had fallen for five straight months.
In an encouraging note, private builders increased spending on housing projects by 0.7 percent, contributing to the overall improvement in April. It marked the first time since August that private home builders boosted such spending. At that time, they increased it 5.5 percent.

Private spending on all other construction projects other than residential ones went up a strong 1.8 percent in April, following a 2.6 percent gain in March. Builders increased spending in April on projects including hotels and motels, factories, power plants and health care facilities. That more than offset reductions in spending on office buildings, amusement and recreation projects and on other projects.

Spending by the government, however, dipped 0.6 percent in April. That refected spending cuts on schools, hospitals and other health-care buildings, and sewer and water-supply projects.

A collapse in the housing market, a credit crunch and a financial crisis helped push the U.S. into a recession.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said he hopes the recession, which started in December 2007 and is now the longest since World War II, will end later this year.
Builders have been hard hit. They slashed spending on residential projects in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 38.7 percent, the most since the spring of 1980. Spending on commercial projects was slashed, too.

Economists are hopeful that cutbacks by business in the current April-to-June quarter won't be as deep as they have been. If they are right, the economy shouldn't shrink nearly as much during this quarter as it had in the last six months, analysts say.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly...again.

More housing numbers came out today. As with most of the information coming out recently, today’s market news was a mix of “good”, “bad” and “ugly”.

First time buyers are accounting for more than 50% of the recent sales activity and “move up” buyers have virtually disappeared. The “move up” buyer will only re-enter the market once prices have stabilized on their resale and job security increases.

Words like “shadow inventory”, “long term rate increases”, and “fed actions” all point to a real lack of confidence that the market will be able to bounce back to 2006 levels any time soon. However, the increase in sales and the increased affordability are pointing toward a “bottoming out”. In my opinion, this market will begin a “healthy” recovery when distressed/foreclosed/short-sale inventory returns to a 2006-2007 level.


Here is the grim analysis from CNBC this morning…













Here is a link to a Fox Business Channel video featuring Alexis Glick talking to Coldwell Banker CEO Jim Gillespie talking about the new housing figures.

“Has Housing Hit Bottom?”

The View from the Bridge...I still can't see the bottom but I'm still looking!

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Mixed Signals on Housing

The market reacted to some lower than expected data on housing starts. While many were expecting a modest increase, few were expecting such a double-digit drop. I believe that this is good news for the future health of the housing market. Sales are the key...we need existing inventory to be absorbed BEFORE we start adding to inventory. Sales should be the leading indicator...not starts.

Tech Ticker tells the story of supply equilibrium in this link. April housing starts.

Here is the AP story on housing data and the impact on stocks.

I have also included some insight from CNBC this morning. This was taped shortly after the data was released.











Monday, May 18, 2009

Builder Sentiment Improves

Latest news from Reuters via Yahoo.com. Perhaps we are ready to call a "bottom".

U.S. home builder sentiment rises in May
On Monday May 18, 2009, 1:01 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder sentiment jumped to its highest level in eight months in May, a private survey showed on Monday, supporting views that the three-year housing slump might be close to an end.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 16 from 14 in April, in line with market expectations.

The NAHB attributed the second consecutive monthly increase in the gauge -- which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built, single family homes -- to "the best home buying conditions of a lifetime."

"This continued increase indicates that home builders feel we're at or near the bottom of the market and that positive signs lie ahead for builders and potential home buyers, provided that builder access to production credit significantly improves," said NAHB chief economist David Crowe.

Other housing indicators have recently shown a sharp slowing in the pace of the market's decline, raising optimism a bottom was not too far away.

The collapse of domestic house prices and the subsequent global credit crisis were the main catalysts for the U.S. recession, now in its 17th month.

The report also showed two out of three subindexes of the Housing Market Index rising in May. The current sales conditions gauge climbed two points to 14, while the sales expectations measure for the next six months rose three points to 27. The traffic of prospective buyers index was unchanged at 13 in May.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Fix Housing First?

The economy is on everyone's mind. It is the universal challenge we all are forced to confront right now. The banking industry...the insurance giant "AIG"...the investment banks...now the auto industry...everyone is being crushed by this recession and they are looking for government to lead.

While economists will be arguing for decades as to the root cause(s)of this economic crisis, right now we should be focused on stimulating growth. The housing industry is pushing for a "fix housing first" initiative that is focused on stabilizing the housing industry and the real estate markets.

I believe the general premise is valid and potentially viable...if we can bring stability to the housing market, we can provide a base from which growth could begin. I do not know if this proposal is the best way or the only way to achieve that goal. Take a look at the website "Fix Housing First". I would love to get some feedback or even some better ideas!